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0?rDtT2fR4CbA DYNAMIC, OLIGOPOLISTIC, SPATIAL, NASH-COURNOT EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR OPEN HYDROELECTRICITY MARKETS.
Jess Mara Velsquez Bermdez
HIPERVNCULO mailto:jvelasquez@decisionware-ltd.com jvelasquez@decisionware-ltd.com
DecisionWare ltda.
Bogot, COLOMBIA
IFORS 2002, Edinburgh, UK, (July 8-12, 2002)
ABSTRACT
This paper describes a dynamic, oligopolistic, spatial, Nash-Cournot equilibrium model to determine hydroelectricity dispatch, of medium and long term in an open market, based on standardized financial instruments for future risk hedging. The organization of the paper initially describes the market structure, thereinafter it describes an equilibrium model of two levels: the first is related to the competitive spot market and the second to the market agents who are simulated individually as Nash players. Then it presents the math conditions that demonstrate the existence of the market equilibrium, and finally it includes experimental results for the case of a potential Colombian market based on standardized financial instruments.
RESUMEN
Este artculo describe un modelo de equilibrio dinmico Nash-Cournot, para un mercado oligoplico abierto basado en instrumentos financieros estandarizados para el cubrimiento de riesgos futuros. El modelo permite determinar el despacho de electricidad, de mediano y de largo plazo, y el flujo energtico a travs de las redes de interconexin. La organizacin del articulo es: inicialmente se describe la estructura del mercado, posteriormente se describe un modelo de equilibrio de dos niveles: un nivel est relacionado con un mercado spot competitivo y el segundo nivel con los agentes del mercado quienes se comportan como jugadores tipo Nash, a continuacin se presentan las pruebas matemticas que demuestran la existencia del equilibrio del mercado, y finalmente se incluyen resultados experimentales para el caso de un potencial mercado Colombiano basado en instrumentos financieros estandarizados.
INTRODUCTION
This study is related to the design and implementation of a dynamical and spatial equilibrium model for an open hydroelectricity market in which a limited number of Nash-Cournot generators compete offering its energy.
THE MODEL
The model considers an electricity market in which generators agents that have subscribed financial instruments of risk hedge (options and futures) compete, and that have acquired dispatch rights based on the instruments exercise. The model considers the generators making part of a game in which they act as Nash players maximizing their discounted income present value based on the optimum determination of the quantities to generate, the quantities to buy or sell in the spot market and the prices to participate in the spot market. The behavior of each generator is simulated based on an individualized model that represents his industrial infrastructure and his financial instruments in detail.
On the other hand, the spot market is considered an efficient agent that minimizes the costs of attending demand not satisfied by the autodispatched generators buying optimally, according to the prices offered by the generators. The spot market is represented by means of an integrated model that takes into account all the physical restrictions of the system and that guarantees the feasibility of the dispatch.
The two models are integrated based on a hierarchic relationship in which the spot market is the coordinator of the offers and decisions of the agents. The information exchange between the two levels is based on the price offers accomplished by the spot market and for each generator. The process converges to the break-even point of the market.
Integrally the model can be conceived as the coordinated sum of the physic model and the trade model. The physic model represents all the existing relationships between the different components that make part of the production infrastructure; and the trade model represents all the conditions accepted between the agents to accomplish commercial transactions endorsed by their physical production. For facility of the reader, the presentation of the elements related to the physical model has been limited to its principal components and to elemental topology forms. However, the presented experimental results are based on the SHTG physical system modeling (Velsquez and Nieto 1998) that represents the industrial production infrastructure in detail.
The characteristics of the physic system presented in the models formulation are:
The transmission system represented by electrical operative areas and by transmission lines that interconnect them.
The consumption centers and the generation units located in the electrical operative areas.
A transportation system with linear losses in the lines is considered for the energy transmission.
Hydraulic generation based on constant conversion factors.
Hydraulic topology limited to:
the reservoir spillage can not be controlled
the hydraulics central are connected to one reservoir only
the water used in a central hydraulic routed to one reservoir only
The negotiation system has the following hypothesis:
The financial instruments are consolidated by each generator
The industrial infrastructure of a generating agent may be composed by multiple hydraulic plants and multiple thermal plants
The consolidated quantity of energy, the original price and the final price of the financial instruments are known by each agent.
The following describes the indices used in the two models
a Generator agent
e Electrical operative area
f Electrical restriction
m, n Reservoir
o Group of options
p Hydraulic Plant or Thermal Plant
t Time
u Transmission Line
z Electricity Consumer Node
The remaining mathematical elements will describe where they are used for the first time.
NASH GENERATOR MODEL
Each Nash generator determines its optimum decisions having as reference its expectations with respect to the spot price. The agent tries to maximize its revenues for the planning horizon of T periods determining optimum quantities for the autodispatch generation, the purchases in the spot market and the bid price of its energy in the spot market.
The problem that each generator should solve is function of the expectations with respect to the spot price which are represented by the vector L, whose components are the spot prices (lt) for each period of the planning horizon.
L = {l1, l2, & lT}
To determine the commitments acquired by the generator it should take into account the energy committed in the futures market (EF) it should be delivered independently of the spot price, the corresponding incomes to this energy are received previously to the moment of generation and therefore, they are independent from the generator decision.
The options commitments will be effective depending on the relationship between the spot price and the last option strike price (the renegotiated option price). The income of the generator is determined by the strike price to which the option was issued, and depend of the fact that energy will be delivered. To represent the previous situation it should consider that the generators support the group of options that are characterized by the strike price issued for the option (PSB), the last strike price negotiated (PSE), and the energy negotiated in these conditions (EO). Assuming economic rationality on the option buyer side, the quantity of energy in options that the generator must deliver, can be calculated as
EOTt,a(lt) = oeOG(a) EOt,o dt,o(lt)
where:
EOTt,a energy that the generator a must deliver to support its options in the period t
OG(a) set of group of options that support the generator a
EOt,o energy associated with group of options o in the period t
dt,o(lt) binary multiplier that indicates if the group of options will be exercised in the period t. Its value is established based on the relationship between the last renegotiated strike price of the group of options o and the spot price
dt,o(lt) = {0if lt PSEo1 if lt > PSEoPSEo last renegotiated strike price of the group of options o
The income by the exercise of the options during the period t are:
IEOt,a(lt) = oeOG(a) PSBo EOt,o dt,o
where
IEOt,a(lt) income caused by the exercise of the options of the generator a during the period t
PSEo strike price to which the group of options o was sold initially.
Total energy that the generator a must deliver to support its commitments in options and future is:
ETt,a(lt) = EOTt,a(lt) + EFt,a
where
ETt,a total energy that the generator a must deliver during the period t
EFt,a energy sold in futures that the generator a must deliver during the period t
IEOt,a(lt) and ETt,a(lt) are growing functions with respect to lt
The generator has several options to comply with the commitments assumed in the risks market:
To deliver energy directly (autodispatch)
To Buy energy in the spot market
To Pay the penalization for nonfulfillment
The previous situation is described through the following equation:
ETt,a(lt) = peGP(a) GAt,p + ESt,a + ENt,a
where
GP(a) set of plants operated by the agent a
GAt,p autodispatch generation of the plant p during the period t
ESt,p energy bought by the agent a in the spot market in the period t
ENt,a commitments of energy delivery unfulfilled by the agent a in the period t
Additionally to the autodispatch generation, the generator can be prepared to sell energy in the spot market (DGS) it will be remunerated to the spot price. The total energy generated will satisfy the installed capacity restrictions of each plant. This is
GTt,p = GAt,p + DGSt,p CGt,p
where
GTt,p total generation of the plant p in the period t
DGSt,p generation of the plant p that it is available to sell in the spot market (availability offer) in the period t
CGt,p generation capacity of the plant p in the period t
In the case of hydraulic plants it is necessary to consider the capacity of the hydraulic system in which the plant is located. Two cases should be considered: when the generator controls all the hydraulic chain and when it shares the control with other agents. In this model only the first case is considered, letting the second case for a subsequent phase. The continuity equations that govern the hydraulic system have the following structure:
Final Level = Initial Level + Runoff - Generation +/- Reservoir Movements - Spillage
The most general case of the previous equation can be expressed as:
VFt+1,m = VFt,m + peCA(m)GTt,p - peCB(m)GTt,p + neEA(m)WCt,n,m - neEB(m)WCt,m,n WSt,m + Qt,m
where
VFt,m energy stored in the reservoir m at the end of the period t
CA(m) hydraulic plants that provide water to the reservoir m
CB(m) hydraulic plants that take water from the reservoir m
EA(m) reservoirs that can provide water to the reservoir m
EB(m) reservoirs that can receive water from the reservoir m
WCt,m,n water movement from the reservoir m to the reservoir n during the period t
WSt,m spillage in reservoir m during the period t
Qt,m runoff to the reservoir m during the period t
Additionally, restrictions of storage reservoir capacity and conduction capacity between reservoirs should be considered.
VFt,m CEt,m
WCt,m,n CCt,m,n
where
CEt,m storage capacity of the reservoir m at the end of the period t
CCt,m conduction capacity between the reservoir m and the reservoir n during the period t
For each period t the variable income (without taking into account income or costs already caused) can be expressed as the sum of:
the sales in the spot market
the options exercised by the buyers
less
the purchases in the spot market
the variable generation costs
the costs due to the unfulfilled commitments in the risks market
The foregoing can be expressed mathematically as:
lt peGP(g) DGSt,p + IEOt,a(lt) - lt ESt,a - peGP(a) CVt,p GTt,p - PNt ENt,a
where
CVt,p variable generation cost of the plant p in the period t
PNt penalization cost for the commitments not fulfilled in the period t
The problem to solve for each Nash generator is:
NAPa(L):
Max t=1,T lt peGP(g) DGSt,p + IEOt,a(lt) - lt ESt,a - peGP(a) CVt,p GTt,p - PNt ENt,a
subject to:
ETt,a(lt) = peGP(a) GAt,p + ESt,a + ENt,a
GTt,p = GAt,p + DGSt,p
VFt+1,m = VFt,m + peCA(m)GTt,p - peCB(m)GTt,p + neEA(m)WCt,n,m - neEB(m)WCt,m,n WSt,m + Qt,m
GTt,p CGt,p
VFt,m CEt,m
WCt,m,n CCt,m,n
The availability of generation in the spot market (DGSt,p) corresponds to an estimate that accomplishes the generator and that is coherent with the generator bid price for such generation.
The generators with hydraulic resource should determine the bid spot market price of its plants, taking into account the opportunity cost of using the water resource in the period t in exchange for the possibility of using it in the future. This opportunity cost is determined by the dual variables of the restrictions related to the availability of water resource at the end of the period t.
VFt+1,m = VFt,m + peCA(m)GTt,p - peCB(m)GTt,p + neEA(m)WCt,n,m - neEB(m)WCt,m,n WSt,m + Qt,m
We define qt,m as the dual variable of the previous restriction that represents the benefit (income) that would be obtained if the availability of water resource in the reservoir m at the end of the period t is increased in a unit. To the previous benefit, the cost of using the resource (that normally is assumed equal to zero) should be added to determine the spot market price to maintain the same income level.
Therefore the spot market price for a hydraulic plant can be defined as
pt,p = peCB(m) qt,m - peCA(m) qt,m + CVt,p
where pt,p represents the bid price in the period t of energy generated in the plant p.
Due to the fact that the model does not consider limitations in the availability of fuel and long term fuel supply contracts, the bid price of the thermal plants will be equal to its variable cost. New equations in the generator model should be included in case of variations in these basic hypothesis, and it is necessary to revise the math formulation for the bid price (Velsquez 2000). From now on, the thermal bid price will be equal to
pt,p = CVt,p
2.2 SPOT MARKET MODEL
The spot market can be considered as an agent that represents the consumers (the demand side) and whose function is to coordinate all the Nash generators to satisfy the system demand. The economic rationality of this agent is based on the principle of attending the demand minimizing the caused cost. The spot market must guarantee that the physical restrictions, due to the technology and to the topology of the interconnected hydroelectric system, are satisfied providing a feasible solution.
2.2.1. THE PHYSICAL SYSTEM
The equations that determine the feasibility of the dispatch are those which traditionally are included in a minimum cost economic dispatch model. The hydraulic model is integrated by the three equations considered within the hydraulic model of each generator:
Energy conservation in reservoirs:
VFt+1,m = VFt,m + peCA(m)GTt,p - peCB(m)GTt,p + neEA(m)WCt,n,m - neEB(m)WCt,m,n WSt,m + Qt,m
Storage capacity:
VFt,m CEt,m
Water conduct capacity:
WCt,m,n CCt,m,n
The electrical model considers an interconnected system based on operative areas and transmission lines. The plants and the consumption nodes are connected to the system in the operative areas. The details of the electrical model do not make part of the decision models of the Nash generators, due to the fact that they sell their energy to the system in an ideal environment that does not consider the restrictions imposed by the transmission system. The following presents the electrical model equations.
The energy continuity in the electrical area is considered:
peCAO(e) GTt,p + ueLI(e) ELu TLt,u = ueLO(e)TLt,u + zeNC(e) ERt,z
where
ELu efficiency of the interconnection line u
CO(e) plants that deliver their energy in the electrical area e
LI(e) transmission lines that deliver their energy in the electrical area e
LO(e) transmission lines that take their energy from the electrical area e
TLt,u energy transported by the line u during the period t
NC(e) consumption nodes that take their energy from the electrical area e
ERt,z energy delivered in the consumption node z during the period t
The restrictions in the thermal capacity of the transmission lines and import/export capacities of the operative areas should be considered:
TLt,u CLt,u
ueLI(e) ELu TLt,u, CIt,e
ueLO(e) TLt,u CXt,e
where
CLt,u thermal capacity of the transmission line u during the period t
CIt,o import capacity of the operative area e during the period t
CXt,o export capacity of the operative area e during the period t
To consider operative restrictions to guarantee the stability of the system the following restriction is included:
GOt,f peRP(f) GTt,p
where
GOt,f minimal generation associated with the restriction f during the period t
RP(f) group of plants that can support the restriction f
Additionally, The total generation is restrict by the installed capacity
GTt,p CGt,p
The equation related to the satisfaction of demand in each node can be expressed as
DFt,z + ERt,z = DMt,z
where
DFt,z energy deficit (reduction in consumption) in the node z during the period t
DMt,z energy demand in the node z during the period t
2.2.2. THE TRADE SYSTEM
The regulatory entities of the electrical markets have different conceptions about how must be an open electricity market and therefore the models depend of these specific conceptions for each case. In this case an electrical market regulated according to the following principles is being analyzed:
The spot market assigns generation rights based on an ideal system that does not take into account the restrictions of the transmission system
Do not exist variable charges by transmission, this is due to the fact that all energy is sold to the ideal system. The charges for transmission are assumed directly by the buyers (out of the spot market).
Exists a reconciliation process to adjust the incomes due to the differences between the ideal and the real generation.
In the trade system is necessary to made difference between the ideal and the real generation.
The problem to optimize the decisions in the spot market is function of the generators signals:
Bid price offered by the plants for generation in the spot market (pt,p)
Availability of generation in the spot market offered by the plants (DGSt,p)
Autodispatch generation for each plant (GAt,p)
The autodispatch energy corresponds to a segment of the demand that is not satisfied with energy negotiated in the spot market and therefore it must be discounted of the system total demand. The energy traded in the spot market is
DSMt (GA) = z DMt,z - p GAt,p
where DSMt(GA) represents effective demand to the spot market that is function of the autodispatch generation (GA). The equation that represents this situation can be expressed as:
p GIt,p + DFSt = DSMt (GA)
where
GIt,p ideal generation in the plant p during the period t
DFSt ideal generation deficit (spot market) during the period t
The dual variable associated with this equation determines the spot price (lt) that results from the generators signals.
In the case that exists availability offer, or offers by energy blocks, a restriction that limit the spot market ideal generation based to the availability offered by the generator must be included
GIt,p DGSt,p
The generation total required to satisfy demand of the system can be expressed as the sum of the autodispatch generation plus the ideal generation plus the deviations in both generations. This may be expressed by the following equations
GAt,p - DAt,p GTt,p
GTt,p = GAt,p - DAt,p + GIt,p + DIt,p
where
DAt,p negative deviation to the autodispatch generation in the plant p during the period t
DI+t,p positive deviation to the ideal generation in the plant p during the period t
DI-t,p negative deviation to the ideal generation in the plant p during the period t
The real total deficit in the system results from the sum of deficit of the ideal system plus the deficit caused by the transmission restrictions
DFSt + DFRt = p DFt,z
where
DFRt additional deficit, to the spot market deficit, caused by transmission restrictions during the period t
The operation cost of the spot market during the period t is
p pt,p [ GIt,p + DAt,p + DI+t,p] + qt(DFSt + DFRt,)
where pt,p represents the bid price in the period t of the energy generated in the plant p and qt(X) the social cost function when X demand units during the period t are not satisfied.
The problem that optimize the decisions in the spot market can be expressed as
MS(P, DGS, GA)
t { qt(DFSt + DFRt,) + p pt,p [ GIt,p + DAt,p + DI+t,p] }
subject to:
VFt+1,m = VFt,m + peCA(m)GTt,p - peCB(m)GTt,p + neEA(m)WCt,n,m - neEB(m)WCt,m,n WSt,m + Qt,m
peCAO(e) GTt,p + ueLI(e) ELu TLt,u = ueLO(e)TLt,u + zeNC(e) ERt,z
ueLI(e) ELu TLt,u, CIt,e
ueLO(e) TLt,u CXt,e
GOt,f peRP(f) GTt,p
GTt,p = GAt,p + GIt,p + DGt,p
p GIt,p + DFSt = DSMt (GA)
DFt,z + ERt,z = DMt,z
DFSt + DFRt = p DFt,z
VFt,m CEt,m
WCt,m,n CCt,m,n
TLt,u CLt,u
GTt,p CGt,p
GIt,p DGSt,p
The vectors P, DGS, GA are the signals that give the generators to the spot market and correspond to the following variable groups
Pp = {p1,1, p2,1 , & pt,p & pT,P}
DGS = {DGS1,1, DGS2,1 , & DGSt,p & DGST,P}
GA = {GA1,1, GA2,1 , & GAt,p & GAT,P}
2.3 INTEGRATED MODEL
The models described previously represent rational positions for the generators and for the spot market and solved coordinately determine the market break-even point. The spot market acts as coordinator and the generators as coordinated agents. The spot market sends signals to the generators: the spot price (lt); and the generators send signals to the spot market: their price offers (pt,p), the availability to generate in spot market (DGSt,p) and the autodispatch generation (GAt,p).
The plan proposed to solve the problem is based on an iterative process in which interact the agents and the spot market using the economical its signals.
The proposed algorithm is (the k superindex is used to associate the generators and spot market signals to the stage of the algorithm):
Step 1
Stage k = 1
The spot market establishes an initial spot price for each one of the periods:
L1 = {l11, l12, & l1T}
The value assigned to l1t can be any initial estimate, or simply be equal to the rationing cost
INCRUSTAR PowerPoint.Slide.8
FIGURE 1. HIERARCHIC RELATION SPOT MARKET - GENERATORS
Step 2
For each one of the generators the problem NAPa(Lk): is solved
As a result each generator establishes its signals:
Pkp = {pk1,1, pk2,1 , & pkt,p & pkT,P}
DGSk = {DGSk1,1, DGSk2,1 , & DGSkt,p & DGSkT,P}
GAk = {GAk1,1, GAk2,1 , & GAkt,p & GAkT,P}
Step 3
For the spot market the problem MS(Pk, DGSk, GAk): is solved
As a result the spot market establishes a new spot price:
Lk+1 = {lk+11, lk+12, & lk+1T}
Step 4
The prices Lk and Lk+1are compared. If they are considered equal the process is stopped, in otherwise k=k+1 and return to the step 2.
MATHEMATICS PROPERTIES
In this numeral we studied the mathematics properties of the formulated model. The objective of the analysis is to demonstrate the conditions to exists the break-even point and how the proposed algorithm is capable to get it.
AN EXPERIMENTAL CASE: THE COLOMBIAN ELECTRICITY MARKET
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